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The Oil Security Metrics Model

Project Summary

Full Title: The Oil Security Metrics Model: A Tool for Evaluating the Prospective Oil Security Benefits of DOE’s Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Research and Development Programs
Project ID: 224
Principal Investigator: David L. Greene
Keywords: Advanced technology vehicles; costs; models; hybrid electric vehicles (HEV)

Purpose

Describe methods for estimating the prospective oil security benefits of EERE’s R&D programs that are consistent with the methodologies of the National Research Council (NRC) Committee on Prospective Benefits of DOE’s Energy Efficiency and Fossil Energy R&D Programs.

Performer

Principal Investigator: David L. Greene
Organization:Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL)
Address:2360 Cherahala Blvd.
Knoxville, TN 37932
Telephone:865-946-1314
Email:dlgreene@ornl.gov
Additional Performers: Paul N. Leiby, Oak Ridge National Laboratory

Period of Performance

End: May 2006

Project Description

Type of Project: Model
Category: Energy Infrastructure
Objectives: Define and implement a method that makes use of NRC’s typology of prospective benefits and methodological framework, satisfies the NRC’s criteria for prospective benefits evaluation and permits measurement of the prospective energy security benefits of EERE’s R&D portfolio related to oil.
User Inputs: Impact of advanced hybrids in U.S. oil consumption; cost and fuel economy improvement potential of advanced hybrid technology; future oil market conditions
User Interface: Excel workbook running under @Risk simulation software
Outputs: Oil security net benefits: transfer of wealth; economic surplus losses; macroeconomic disruption costs
Assumptions Inherent in Model: Three kinds of uncertainty are represented: uncertainty about the future state of world energy markets is represented by random selection of alternative Annual Energy Outlook projections; uncertainty about oil spikes is represented by a stochastic model of oil supply shocks; uncertainty about the values of critical parameters is represented by specifying key parameters as probability distributions rather than point estimates.

Products/Deliverables

 

  • Description: Report
    Publication Title: The Oil Security Metrics Model: A Tool for Evaluating the Prospective Oil Security Benefits of DOE’s Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy R&D Programs
    Publisher: Oak Ridge National Laboratory
    Publication Notes: ORNL/TM-2006/505
    Author Name(s): Greene, David L.; Leiby, Paul N.
    (PDF 718 KB) Download Adobe Reader.
    Publication Date: May 2006
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    (PDF 444) Download Adobe Reader.
    Argonne National Laboratory



Date Last Updated: 03/31/2008