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Transition Analysis - H2 Production and Delivery Infrastructure

Project Summary

Full Title: Transition Analysis of the Hydrogen Production and Delivery Infrastructure as a Complex Adaptive System
Project ID: 64
Principal Investigator: George Tolley
Brief Description: The transition to hydrogen is analyzed as a complex adaptive system to envision how hydrogen infrastructure might evolve, how rapidly it might evolve, and how technological innovation might influence the evolution.
Keywords: transition; hydrogen infrastructure; hydrogen production

Purpose

This project addresses the following technical barriers from section 4 of the Hydrogen, Fuel Cells and Infrastructure Technologies Program Multi-Year Research, Development and Demonstration Plan: Lack of understanding of the transition of a hydrocarbon-based economy to a hydrogen-based economy; Lack of consistent data, assumptions and guidelines; Lack of prioritized list of analyses for appropriate and timely recommendation

Performer

Principal Investigator: George Tolley
Organization:RCF Economic and Financial Consulting, Inc.
Address:333 North Michigan Ave., Suite 804
Chicago, IL 60601
Telephone:312-431-1540
Email:gtolley@uchicago.edu
Additional Performers: Argonne National Laboratory; Ford Motor Company; Air Products and Chemicals, Inc.; World Resources Institute; University of Michigan Center for the Study of Complex Systems; British Petroleum

Sponsor(s)

Name:Fred Joseck
Organization:DOE/EERE/HFCIT
Telephone:202-586-7932
Email:Fred.Joseck@ee.doe.gov

Period of Performance

Start: August 2005
End: April 2008

Project Description

Type of Project: Analysis
Category: Hydrogen Fuel Pathways
Objectives: Identify how the hydrogen infrastructure might evolve; factors that might contribute to the rate and stability of market development; how technological or cost-reducing innovations might aid or detract from market growth
Technologies Considered: As the focus is on early transition, the initial focus will be on distributed H2 production. In FY07 and FY08, model capabilities will be expanded to consider centralized production as well.
Methodology/Approach: Agent-based modeling and simulation based on complex adaptive systems theories
Models Used: New model under development. Incorporates existing Agent-based Vehicle Retailing and Consumer (AVR) module developed by Ford Motor Co. and Agent-Based Investment (ABI) module developed by Argonne National Laboratory.
Outputs: Scenarios of how the hydrogen infrastructure might evolve; factors that will contribute to the rate and stability of market development; and the sensitivity of market growth to technological or cost-reducing innovations.
Sensitivities Studied: Scenarios on agent strategies and technologies
Milestones Supported:
  • Initial agent model for LA area
    • Organization: DOE/EERE/HCFIT
    • Completion Date: January 2006
  • Expanded model for LA area and possibly larger/different geographic scope
    • Organization: DOE/EERE/HCFIT
    • Completion Date: January 2007
Timeframe Studied: 2015 - 2030

Products/Deliverables

 

  • Description: FY 2006 Progress Report
    Publication Title: FY 2006 DOE Hydrogen Program Progress Report
    Article/Abstract Title: VIII.10 Analysis of the Hydrogen Production and Delivery Infrastructure as a Complex Adaptive System
    Page number(s): 1120
    Publisher: U.S. Department of Energy
    Author Name(s): Tolley, George; Jones, Donald; Conzelman, Guenter; Mintz, Marianne
    (PDF 181 KB) Download Adobe Reader.
    Publication Date: November 2006

  • Description: FY 2005 Progress Report
    Publication Title: FY 2005 DOE Hydrogen Program Progress Report
    Article/Abstract Title: III.13 Analysis of the Hydrogen Production and Delivery Infrastructure as a Complex Adaptive System
    Page number(s): 68
    Publisher: U.S. Department of Energy
    Author Name(s): Tolley, George; Jones, Donald; Conzelman, Guenter; Mintz, Marianne
    (PDF 126 KB) Download Adobe Reader.
    Publication Date: November 2005

  • Description: Model for LA area (FY06), expanded model for larger/different geographical scope (FY07). Intermediate project reports (FY06, FY07), final project report (FY08). Briefings to DOE project review: FPITT meeting (April 2006) and DOE Annual Merit Review Meeting (May 2006)


Date Last Updated: 05/09/2007