VISION Model

Project Summary

Full Title:	VISION Model
Project ID:	77
Principal Investigator:	Margaret Singh
Brief Description:	Estimates the potential energy use, oil use and carbon emission impacts of advanced light- and heavy-duty highway vehicles and alternative fuels through 2050.
Keywords:	Alternative fueled vehicles (AFV); hybrid electric vehicles (HEV); fuel cell vehicles (FCV); emissions; greenhouse gases (GHG)

Purpose

The VISION model has been developed by US DOE to provide estimates of the potential energy use, oil use and carbon emission impacts to 2050 of advanced light- and heavy-duty highway vehicles and alternative fuels. It is an Excel spreadsheet model which is particularly useful in responding to quick-turnaround requests for such estimates. It is updated annually to be consistent with EIA’s most recent Annual Energy Outlook.

Performer

Principal Investigator:	Margaret Singh
Organization:	Argonne National Laboratory (ANL)
Address:	DOE Office of Policy Planning, 1000 Independence Avenue, SW Washington, DC 20585
Telephone:	202-488-2440
Email:	singhm@anl.gov
Additional Performers:	Anant Vyas, Argonne National Laboratory

Sponsor(s)

Name:	Phil Patterson
Organization:	DOE/PBFA
Telephone:	202-586-9121
Email:	Philip.Patterson@hq.doe.gov

Project Description

Type of Project:	Model
Category:	Environmental
Objectives:	Development of energy and oil use and carbon emission estimates associated with the market penetration of advanced technology light- and heavy-duty highway vehicles and fuels through 2050. Can be used to develop both short- and long-term estimates.
Technologies Modeled:	Light vehicle technologies include fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) and hybrids (each with 6 fuel choices), diesels, natural gas vehicles, flexible fuel vehicles (FFVs), and electric vehicles as well as gasoline vehicles. The model can be modified by the user to model plug-in hybrid electric vehicles. Heavy vehicles are disagreggated into several classes of trucks.
User Inputs:	Vehicle technology type, fuel economy relative to base internal combustion engine (ICE), market penetration, vehicle miles travelled (including rebound effect), fuel price, % operation of FFVs on E-85, % of ethanol from various feedstocks, % of H2 from renewables versus natural gas, vehicle price relative to base ICE. Most defaults can be changed.

Methodology/Approach:	Linear algebraic calculation

Hardware/Software Requirements:	Publicly available spreadsheet model; model consists of two Excel workbooks: a base case of U.S. highway fuel use and carbon emissions to 2050 and a copy of the base case that can be modified to reflect alternative assumptions about advanced vehicle and alternative fuel market penetration. Several versions of the model are available, each consistent with past and current versions of the DOE Energy Information Administration’s Annual Energy Outlook.

Hardware/Software Requirements:

Publicly available spreadsheet model; model consists of two Excel workbooks: a base case of U.S. highway fuel use and carbon emissions to 2050 and a copy of the base case that can be modified to reflect alternative assumptions about advanced vehicle and alternative fuel market penetration. Several versions of the model are available, each consistent with past and current versions of the DOE Energy Information Administration’s Annual Energy Outlook.

Data Used/Contributing Research:	GREET data is used http://www.transportation.anl.gov/modeling_simulation/GREET/index.html

Outputs:	Energy use (including hydrogen); oil use; carbon emissions; vehicle sales; average new-car and light-truck fuel economy

Assumptions Inherent in Model:	Vehicle survival and age-dependent usage characteristics are used to project total light- and heavy-vehicle stock, total vehicle miles of travel, and total energy use by technology and fuel type by year (given market penetration and vehicle energy efficiency assumptions developed exogenously). Historical sales of light-duty vehicles are used to determine future sales. Carbon emissions are full fuel cycle emissions (using coefficients from the GREET model).

Assumptions Inherent in Model:

Vehicle survival and age-dependent usage characteristics are used to project total light- and heavy-vehicle stock, total vehicle miles of travel, and total energy use by technology and fuel type by year (given market penetration and vehicle energy efficiency assumptions developed exogenously). Historical sales of light-duty vehicles are used to determine future sales. Carbon emissions are full fuel cycle emissions (using coefficients from the GREET model).

Sensitivity Studies Facilitated:	Results are shown to vary depending on many assumptions including those for market penetration (start dates and rate), fuel economy, rebound rate, fuel price, light trucks as a percentage of all light vehicle sales, % hydrogen from renewables, % ethanol from corn, etc.

Timeframe Studied:	2000 - 2050

Products/Deliverables

	Description: VISION Model Publication Title: VISION Model: Description of Model Used to Estimate the Impact of Highway Vehicle Technologies and Fuels on Energy Use and Carbon Emissions to 2050 (PDF 443 KB) Download Adobe Reader. Publication Date: December 2003 Description: Copyright Statement and User Agreement http://www.transportation.anl.gov/modeling_simulation/VISION/copyright.html Description: VISION 2.0 Fixed-MPG Base Case with AEO 2003 Data; VISION 2004 Fixed-MPG Base Case with AEO 2004 Data; VISION 2004 AEO ICE MPG Base Case; VISION 2005 Fixed-MPG Base Case with AEO 2005 Data; VISION 2005 AEO ICE MPG Base Case http://www.transportation.anl.gov/modeling_simulation/VISION/index.html Description: Instructions http://www.transportation.anl.gov/modeling_simulation/VISION/instructions.html

Description: VISION Model
Publication Title: VISION Model: Description of Model Used to Estimate the Impact of Highway Vehicle Technologies and Fuels on Energy Use and Carbon Emissions to 2050
(PDF 443 KB) Download Adobe Reader.
Publication Date: December 2003
Description: Copyright Statement and User Agreement
http://www.transportation.anl.gov/modeling_simulation/VISION/copyright.html
Description: VISION 2.0 Fixed-MPG Base Case with AEO 2003 Data; VISION 2004 Fixed-MPG Base Case with AEO 2004 Data; VISION 2004 AEO ICE MPG Base Case; VISION 2005 Fixed-MPG Base Case with AEO 2005 Data; VISION 2005 AEO ICE MPG Base Case
http://www.transportation.anl.gov/modeling_simulation/VISION/index.html
Description: Instructions
http://www.transportation.anl.gov/modeling_simulation/VISION/instructions.html

Related Model:	National Energy Modeling System (NEMS)

Date Last Updated: 10/03/2006