Advanced Vehicle Introduction Decisions (AVID) Model
Project Summary
| Full Title: |
Advanced Vehicle Introduction Decisions (AVID) Model
|
| Project ID: |
94 |
| Principal Investigator: |
Dan Santini |
| Keywords: |
Vehicle characteristics; market penetration; advanced technology vehicles; hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) |
Purpose
Vehicle Choice Model - Estimate market penetration by new technology vehicles. Original model compared small standard vehicles to small hybrid electric vehicles and reported market share. Focus early adopters and transition from them to standard consumers.
Performer
| Principal Investigator: |
Dan Santini |
| Organization: | Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) |
|---|
| Address: | 9700 S. Cass Avenue
Argonne, IL 60439 |
|---|
| Telephone: | 630-252-3758 |
|---|
| Email: | dsantini@anl.gov |
|---|
| Additional Performers: |
Anant Vyas, Argonne National Laboratory
|
Sponsor(s)
Period of Performance
| Start: |
November 2003
|
| End: |
July 2005
|
Project Description
| Type of Project: |
Model |
| Category: |
Vehicle Options |
| Objectives: |
Estimate new vehicle market shares for various light duty vehicle technologies. The model is based on an analysis of how new technology vehicles are adopted by consumers; early-adopters are less sensitive to price differential; next group of early-buyers value fuel efficiency and drive more miles than average buyers; majority buyers seek references and are sensitive to vehicle prices necessitating price differential to match fuel savings and other utility. |
| Technologies Modeled: |
Model tested on conventional and hybrid electric vehicles; in its test form the model is capable of evaluating 12 technologies; could be configured to test desired set of technologies. |
| User Inputs: |
Vehicle characteristics for each vehicle size and technology by year; fuel prices by year; multinomial logit coefficients if default values are not acceptable; early buyer group coefficient change parameters if default values are not acceptable. |
| Methodology/Approach: |
Applies two multinomial logit models; one model’s coefficients place low emphasis on vehicle price and high emphasis on fuel efficiency; an algorithm moves these coefficients closer to the second logit model over time; the second model reflects majority buyers. |
| Hardware/Software Requirements: |
PC with WINDOWS XP or better; MS-OFFICE software. |
| Outputs: |
Market shares for conventional and new technology vehicles. |
| Assumptions Inherent in Model: |
A small segment of buyers (early adopters) are attracted to a new technology initially; the next segment of buyers (early buyers) drive more miles and are attracted to fuel efficient technologies; majority buyers will buy a new technology vehicle after the technology is accepted by early adopters and early buyers. |
| Sensitivity Studies Facilitated: |
Sensitivity to purchase price differential; sensitivity to fuel prices. |
| Timeframe Studied: |
2005 - 2050 |
Products/Deliverables
| |
Description: Report
Publication Title: Suggestions for a New Vehicle Choice Model Simulating Advanced Vehicles Introduction Decisions (AVID): Structure and Coefficients
Publisher: Argonne National Laboratory (ANL)
Author Name(s): Santini, D.J.; Vyas, A.D.
(PDF 970 KB) Download Adobe Reader.
Publication Date:
August 2005
|
Date Last Updated: 12/12/2006
