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Hydrogen Transition Analysis Using Agent-based Modeling

Project Summary

Full Title: Analysis of the Hydrogen Production and Delivery Infrastructure as a Complex Adaptive System
Previous Title(s): Agent-based Modeling and Simulation (ABMS) for Hydrogen Transition Analysis
Project ID: 95
Principal Investigator: Marianne Mintz
Keywords: Hydrogen infrastructure; transition; hydrogen production; hydrogen delivery

Purpose

Analyze investment in hydrogen infrastructure during the early transition to a hydrogen economy using an agent-based modeling and simulation (ABMS) technique. ABMS is a micro-simulation technique that facilitates representation of heterogeneity in terms of many characteristics of the actors (agents) involved in the transition to a hydrogen infrastructure.

Performer

Principal Investigator: Marianne Mintz
Organization:Argonne National Laboratory (ANL)
Address:9700 S. Cass Ave.
Argonne, IL 60349
Telephone:630-252-5627
Email:mmintz@anl.gov
Additional Performers: RCF Economic and Financial Consulting, Inc.; Air Products and Chemicals, Inc.; World Resources Institute; Ford Motor Company; University of Michigan; BP; Guenter Conzelmann, Argonne National Laboratory

Period of Performance

Start: June 2005
End: May 2008

Project Description

Type of Project: Model
Category: Hydrogen Fuel Pathways
Objectives:
  • Use agent-based modeling to provide insights into likely infrastructure investment patterns.
  • Deal with chicken-or-egg aspect of early transition.
  • Provide answer to the question, “Will the private sector invest in hydrogen infrastructure?”
Technologies Modeled: Fuel production and delivery agents (decentralized, medium centralized, large centralized); delivery options (low-volume, short-distance and high-volume, long distance); retailing/refueling agents selling two products (H2 and gasoline); consumers (transport demand and purchasing and operating decisions); regulator (passive agent, sets the market rules)
Methodology/Approach: Agent-based modeling and simulation
Data Used/Contributing Research:
  • Tutorial on Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation, by Charles M. Macal and Michael J. North, Argonne National Laboratory (PDF 1.4 MB) Download Adobe Reader.

Products/Deliverables

 
  • Description: FY 2007 Progress Report
    Publication Title: FY 2007 DOE Hydrogen Program Progress Report
    Article/Abstract Title: VIII.3 Analysis of the Hydrogen Production and Delivery Infrastructure as a Complex Adaptive System
    Page number(s): 1197
    Publisher: U.S. Department of Energy
    Author Name(s): Tolley, George; Jones, Donald; Conzelmann, Guenter; Mintz, Marianne
    (PDF 861 KB) Download Adobe Reader.
    Publication Date: November 2007

  • Description: FY 2007 Annual Merit Review Presentation
    Article/Abstract Title: Analysis of Hydrogen Production and Delivery Infrastructure as a Complex Adaptive System
    Author Name(s): Tolley, George S.
    (PDF 581 KB) Download Adobe Reader.
    Publication Date: May 2007

  • Description: FY 2006 Progress Report
    Publication Title: FY 2006 DOE Hydrogen Program Progress Report
    Article/Abstract Title: VIII.11 Analysis of the Hydrogen Production and Delivery Infrastructure as a Complex Adaptive System
    Page number(s): 1120
    Publisher: U.S. Department of Energy
    Author Name(s): Tolley, George; Jones, Donald; Conzelmann, Guenter; Mintz, Marianne
    (PDF 181 KB) Download Adobe Reader.
    Publication Date: November 2006

  • Description: Presentation at DOE Hydrogen Transition Analysis Workshop
    Article/Abstract Title: Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation (ABMS) for Hydrogen Transition Analysis
    Author Name(s): Mintz, Marianne
    (PDF 527 KB) Download Adobe Reader.
    Publication Date: January 2006



Date Last Updated: 11/10/2006