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Home > Systems Analysis > Scenario Analysis

2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure

A transition from the current U.S. energy system to one based on hydrogen will be extremely difficult and challenging and will require a national coordinated effort across DOE's programs and the private sector.

  - From the National Research Council's "The Hydrogen Economy: Opportunities, Costs, Barriers, and R&D Needs," February 2004

Introducing hydrogen as an energy carrier would involve major changes in the country's energy and vehicle fleet infrastructure. Technical challenges, costs, and risk will be highest in the near-term, when markets are very small and the technology and infrastructure are immature. The U.S. Department of Energy is conducting scenario analyses to explore the costs and tradeoffs of different near-term options for hydrogen production, delivery, and utilization, and what policies might be most effective in sustaining the early years of hydrogen and fuel cell technology development and adoption. Models are being developed to better understand the combined effects of different vehicle market penetration rates, geographic and spatial layouts of fueling stations, hydrogen production and delivery options, and policies and incentives.

A DOE Hydrogen Transition Analysis Workshop was held on January 26, 2006 to gather input and feedback on the hydrogen transition models currently funded by DOE. As a follow-up to the January workshop, the DOE 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Meeting was held August 9-10, 2006 to review preliminary results of the scenario analysis activities and to seek feedback from program stakeholders.